基于CE模型的河南省耕地生态补偿额度研究

[目的]基于生态补偿利益主体的需求和支付意愿,充分考虑区域经济发展状态,测算具有弹性的生态补偿标准,确保生态补偿机制顺利运行。[方法]以河南省457份实地调查问卷为基础,采用选择实验法,建立由4个属性水平、7个选择集组成的生态价值属性集,测算受访对象生态补偿的支付意愿。[结果]城乡居民对于耕地资源景观与生态环境关注度最高,其次是耕地质量和耕地面积;农民和市民对于耕地生态价值属性满足的支付意愿存在显著差异性,农民支付意愿为2 060.55元/hm~2,市民支付意愿为3 396.15元/hm~2,两者相差近1 335.60元/hm~2,收入水平、环保意识是影响受访对象生态补偿支付意愿的最直接因素,但两者均认为耕地面积不变、耕地质量改善和耕地景观生态环境改善为最优选择。[结论]补偿额度应充分考虑相关利益主体的支付能力和意愿,将农民的支付意愿作为生态补偿下限,市民的支付意愿作为生态补偿上限,可建立具有一定弹性的生态补偿机制。     

气候障碍因子对城市绿化适生树种选择的 影响——以上海世博公园为例

通过对上海近30年的气候因子汇总分析，结合对上 海世博公园主要绿化树种生长状况调查和年度生物量计算，通 过典型相关性分析发现，极端高低温、强风和暴雨等5个气候 因子对树木的生长产生了不同程度的影响，有些因子严重阻碍 了树木的正常生长，成为障碍因子。经过10年的绿化实践验 证，上海世博公园对骨干树种的选择，以乡土树种为主，群落 结构较为稳定，且气候障碍因子对乡土树种的影响较小。在引 种外来树种时，采用气候相似植物区系法，结合植物耐寒、耐 热带图，把种源地划分为2个气候带和3个植物区系，并确定了 最南引种线，成功引种了红花槭等20种观花色叶乔木树种。     

全球价值链分工对国际经济周期协同性的影响研究

为考察全球价值链分工的宏观经济效应,本文基于2000—2014年全球102个经济体相关数据,探究了全球价值链贸易对国际经济周期协同性的影响。结果表明,全球价值链贸易深化了国际垂直型分工,显著提升了国际经济周期的协同性;无论是制造业还是服务业价值链贸易,对国际经济周期协同性都具有显著正向影响,侧面反映出服务业也在越来越深入地融入全球分工体系;价值链贸易对国际经济周期协同性的影响效应主要体现于发展中与发达经济体之间,发达经济体之间的经济周期协同性受其影响并不明显。     

Policy lessons from spatiotemporal enrollment patterns of payment for ecosystem service programs in Argentina

Payment for ecosystem services schemes (PES) are lauded as a market-based solution to curtail deforestation and restore degraded ecosystems. However, PES programs often fail to conserve sites under strong long-term deforestation pressures. Underperformance, in part, is likely due to adverse selection. Spatial adverse selection occurs when landowners are more likely to enroll parcels with low deforestation pressure than parcels with high deforestation pressure. Temporal adverse selection arises when parcels are enrolled for short time periods. In both cases, financial resources are allocated without having a sizeable impact on long-term land use change. Improving program performance to overcome these shortcomings requires understanding attributes of landowners and their parcels across large scales to identify spatial and temporal enrollment patterns that drive adverse selection. In this paper, we examine these patterns in Argentina’s PES program in Chaco forest, a global deforestation hotspot. Our study area covers 252,319 km². Results from multinomial logistic regression models showed that large parcels of enrolled land and parcels owned by absentee landowners exhibit greater evidence of spatiotemporal adverse selection than smaller parcels or parcels owned by local landowners. Furthermore, parcels managed under land use plans for conservation and restoration are more likely to be associated with adverse selection than parcels managed for financial returns such as harvest of non-timber forest products, silviculture, and silvopasture. However, prior to recommending that PES programs focus on land uses with higher potential earnings, a greater understanding is needed of the degree to which these land uses meet ecological and biodiversity goals of PES programs. We suggest that increased spatial targeting of enrollment, along with enrollment of local landowners and further incentives for land uses that support conservation and restoration, could promote long-term conservation of forest lands.     

Rewilding and restoring cultural landscapes in Mediterranean mountains: Opportunities and challenges

Farmland abandonment and the decline of livestock activity in the Mediterranean mountains have resulted in dramatic landscape changes, including the generalized expansion of shrublands and forests, and the homogenization of the old cultural landscapes. This process has a variety of consequences from ecological, geomorphological and hydrological points of view, as well as from the perspectives of land management and public awareness. An intense debate currently surrounds the discussion and evaluation of rewilding (the process of passively allowing woody encroachment, as well as the reintroduction of large mammals) as an opportunity for enhancing biodiversity and restoring original landscapes after centuries of human activity versus ecological restoration (activities leading to the recovery of degraded ecosystems, including clearing and light human activity). There is no clear consensus regarding the best way to improve the ecological relationships and functioning within an ecosystem. Biodiversity and sustainability can be seen under different levels of human pressure and landscape transformation; total farmland abandonment is not always the best alternative, particularly when local inhabitants aim to sustain themselves using local resources. Many geographers and ecologists consider that extensive stockbreeding in a partially open landscape is a rational way to (i) improve landscape organization, (ii) increase flows and turnover within the ecosystems, (iii) increase the diversity of plants and animals that benefit from a relatively light human presence, and (iv) reduce wildfire risk. However, it has proven challenging for land managers and stockbreeders to clear the best old abandoned fields and “construct” a sustainable, balanced landscape that combines forests, shrublands and open lands. Private landowner involvement and support from the general public is crucial for both funding and the long-term maintenance of benefits. The best old fields should be cleared in the context of high-resolution knowledge of the topography, grassland characteristics, grassland cycles and livestock management. Such efforts are likely to be an excellent opportunity to introduce compatibility between light human activity and increases in biodiversity and sustainability for many marginal mountains, where land abandonment and general forest/shrub recovery are the inevitable tendencies. This paper examines some of the contrasting positions of the scientific community regarding the rewilding or ecological restoration of mountain landscapes, and briefly highlights some experiences in which intentional clearing of old abandoned fields has benefited stockbreeding, biodiversity, runoff generation and wildfire risks. Notably, we describe a sub-Mediterranean valley of the Iberian Range, Northern Spain, as an example. In the long term, we find that the intentional clearing of the best old fields allows the slow organization of a final landscape that will be more useful for local inhabitants, thereby helping to reverse human depopulation in these regions.     

Probabilistic wind forecasting up to three months ahead using ensemble predictions for geopotential height

We develop a method for forecasting the distribution of the daily surface wind speed at timescales from 15-days to 3-months in France. On such long-term timescales, ensemble predictions of the surface wind speed have poor performance, however, the wind speed distribution may be related to the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere, for which the ensemble forecasts have better skill. The information from the large-scale circulation, represented by the 500 hPa geopotential height, is summarized into a single index by first running a PCA and then a polynomial regression. We estimate, over 20 years of daily data, the conditional probability density of the wind speed at a specific location given the index. We then use the ECMWF seasonal forecast ensemble to predict the index for horizons from 15-days to 3-months. These predictions are plugged into the conditional density to obtain a distributional forecast of surface wind. These probabilistic forecasts remain sharper than the climatology up to 1-month forecast horizon. Using a statistical postprocessing method to recalibrate the ensemble leads to further improvement of our probabilistic forecast, which then remains calibrated and sharper than the climatology up to 3-months horizon, particularly in the north of France in winter and fall.     

The effects of slack resource of R&D professionals on firm performance: evidence from traditional manufacturing firms in an emerging economy

Abstract

As an important component of organizational human resource slack (HR slack), the slack of research-and-development (R&D) professionals has been studied by several authors. However, it remains unclear whether and how this small component of general HR slack, i.e. the slack of research-and-development professionals (RHR slack), may affect overall firm performance in an emerging economy without much R&D tradition or pro-R&D institutions. Based on two organizational theories, i.e. institutional theory and the resource-based view of the firm (RBV), we propose competing hypotheses on the relationship between RHR slack and firms’ accounting performance. We also examine whether the relationship between RHR slack and firm performance should be linear or curvilinear. Finally, we also test the relationship between RHR slack and other dimensions of firm performance. Several interesting findings have been obtained. For instance, neither the perspective based on institutional theory nor that based on RBV can fully predict all types of RHR slack-performance relationships, be these relationships linear or curvilinear.     

Can environmentally oriented CEOs and environmentally friendly suppliers boost the growth of small firms?

The core question addressed in the natural resource‐based view (NRBV) of the firm is how to develop and exploit resources beneficial for both the natural environment and firm performance. Due to the resource constraints and increased competition facing small manufacturing firms, achieving this is a challenge for such companies. Building on the NRBV and resource orchestration literatures, we examine the relationship between green purchasing capabilities (GPCs), CEO's environmental orientation (EO), and firm growth. Results from 304 Swedish small manufacturing firms indicate a significant relationship between GPC and growth, and this relationship is positively moderated by the EO of the CEO.     

医疗卫生资源、新型冠状病毒肺炎死亡率与资源优化配置

新冠肺炎疫情发生后，湖北省一直是疫情的重灾区与抗疫的焦点地区，患者死亡率远远高于全国平均水平。本文构建纳入医疗资源条件的新冠肺炎传播的SIER模型进行机制分析和模拟研究，发现改善卫生资源条件会降低疫情的死亡率。针对湖北省疫情数据，使用最小二乘方法进行实证研究后发现,无论是增加医院或者卫生系统内的床位数，还是增加医护人员数，均可显著地降低疫情死亡率。进一步通过时变效应和断点回归模型考察重大突发公共卫生事件一级响应政策效应和外援医疗团队效应，实证结果也佐证了上述推断。结合研究结论和湖北省防疫经验，本文提出先整合医院内部医疗资源，打破医院内部各科室之间分割，再整合地区内医疗卫生系统的资源，同时实施医疗系统外部资源三管齐下的医疗资源配置建议措施，以期为国内外疫情防控贡献中国智慧。     

技术购买与资源协奏式创新 ——基于技术吸收与整合互补性的联合中介视角

基于资源协奏理论，本文将外部技术购买、技术吸收和技术整合纳入同一框架，运用2005—2014年中关村国家高技术企业的面板回归和Tobit回归分析，研究技术购买影响创新的资源协奏机制。研究发现：技术吸收与技术整合在技术购买的创新实现中具有互补性，且二者基于互补性发挥联合中介作用，实现技术购买企业的资源协奏式创新。本文基于资源协奏框架探讨外部技术投入战略的创新效果实现机制，为技术购买实现创新机制的研究引入新视角，深化开放式创新理论和资源协奏理论。